Saturday, August 09, 2008

Hulked out!

Whoever let him loose?

‘Hulk’ing oil prices have gripped the world, and the problem isn’t rising consumption. karan mehrishi of 4PsB&M takes a closer look

What goes up must come down? How one wishes this was as true for oil prices, which, besides defying gravity, have upset the budgetary calculations of millions of households across the world; not to mention bringing entire governments to their knees. When oil prices breached the $110 mark, analysts were of the opinion that prices would stabilise themselves as consumers would abstain from consumption as soon as they feel the pinch. Those analysts have been caught on the wrong barrel... er... foot, since oil prices are now touching $130, and a super spike to 200 is now considered possibile.

Even though some factions believed that a super spike, prices exceeding $200 per barrel, will be an eventuality, some analysts have a separate opinion. “I don’t think prices of crude will cross $200 per barrel simply because it’s too high. We are at the $120-130 range and consumers and governments have already started to contribute significantly,” says renowned oil expert Sebastian Mallaby, Fellow, Counsel on Foreign Relations (CFR), to 4Ps B&M.

However, there is still no respite from the reality of the impending oil shock and stakes are indeed high. According to Petro India’s Shantanu Saikia, “There is a fair amount of volatility, it all depends on what rice the demand-supply equilibrium is settled at. However, this is not a violent shock; prices can stabilise in 5-6 years, but it should be understood that this is an era of high oil prices.”

As a result, there is great insecurity among end consumers, who have found their money incomes depleted with respect to purchasing power. As per a survey by National Association of Convenience Stores, 45% of American consumers reported a decline in spending power due to rising petrol prices. While 19% wanted to buy more fuel efficient cars, an astonishing 13% had already reduced their driving on the back of $3/ gallon gasoline prices! As a result of earlier oil shocks, consumers have increasingly adapted an ‘aftermath attitude’ and eventual demands for automobiles have sagged significantly through out the world. A total of 38,214 hybrids were sold in the American market alone in March 2008, proof that these cars are now being perceived as a value proposition that’s beyond ‘fashion’.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative
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